Parameter uncertainties in evaluating climate policies with dynamic integrated climate-economy model
Özet
Climate change is a complex issue with signifcant scientifc and socio-economic uncertainties, making it difcult to assess
the efectiveness of climate policies. Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Models (DICE models) have been widely used to
evaluate the impact of diferent climate policies. However, since climate change, long-term economic development, and their
interactions are highly uncertain, an accurate assessment of investments in climate change mitigation requires appropriate
consideration of climatic and economic uncertainties. Moreover, the results of these models are highly dependent on input
parameters and assumptions, which can have signifcant uncertainties. To accurately assess the impact of climate policies,
it is crucial to incorporate uncertainties into these models. In this paper, we explore the impact of parameter uncertainties
on the evaluation of climate policies using DICE models. Our goal is to understand whether uncertainty signifcantly afects
decision-making, particularly in global warming policy decisions. By integrating climatic and economic uncertainties into
the DICE model, we seek to identify the cumulative impact of uncertainty on climate change. Overall, this paper aims to
contribute to a better understanding of the challenges associated with evaluating climate policies using DICE models, and
to inform the development of more efective policy measures to address the urgent challenge of climate change.
